Peoples Economy Brian M Lucey Day 3. What happens if the banks go bust?

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Questions Asked:

Kevin >> (All): I’ve listened to Sinn Fein’s take on the dealing with the economy and the bank debt. What is your take on it, do you think they are being realisitic or are they a bridge too far?

brian greene >> (All): do the ATMs run dry brian greene >> (All): Sinn Fein call for the separation.

victoria kenny >> (All): OK — do you think FG will be a good single government with Independents? brian greene >> (All): Portugal buy back 250m euro debt this morning

victoria kenny >> (All): What does the buying back euro debt mean?

Kevin >> (All): Lenihan came back from Europe yesterday and shouted from the rafters that all this talk on burning bondholders made our european “friends” shocked. What do you think is really going on? Should we use this shock and awe to force them to accept the bank debt restructuring on our terms?

brian greene >> (All): buying back debt extend the life of the debt on the market, extending out the time before maturity (i think)

Declan Weri >> (All): Why is the identity of bondholders of Anglo not in the public domain?

Rob Cleary >> (All): Why have people bought the recently issued Irish bonds if it looks like we’re going to default down the line – do they know something we don’t know?

Bri >> (All): Aren’t the DoF as culpable for this mess & a risk to resolution/recovery?
brian greene >> (All): why all the fuss about 67.5 billion from EUSF/IMF when ECB has 110bn euro plus at 1% in here? is it the interest rate?

karlypants >> (All): Why dont you and other respected economists sign up to a statement with an estimate of when Ireland will have to default if we stay on current course. (~2013) The sooner incomming gov’s hand is forced on restructuring the better for the country. Unless they are under pressure they’ll just carry on and then blame events we can predict now.

Jam >> (All): What are the short-term and long-term economic benefits (if any) of FG policies on privatisation of National societies and assets?

eggfuel >> (All): DOF basically are puppets for private interests!!1

victoria kenny >> (All): Do you think we need to get other EU “friends” to help us get the bondholders burnt – if so who are these friends and how do we get them to help

Colin >> (All): One thing that’s always confused me is that the size of the bailout (85 billion) doesn’t come anywhere close to the estimated losses (300 billion). Are the architects of the bailout deluded or is a haircut factored in?

Kevin >> (All): Okay, if we accept that the bank debt has been hoisted on the shoulders of the sovreign debt by the last government. What are the steps needed to realistically deleverage this debt and re-enter the markets. Will Ollie Rhen and his illk allow this to happen without threats of  bringing the euro down and possibly leaving the eurozone? Who, if anybody, will actually take this position? If not, when do you think we will default?

Rob Cleary >> (All): My understanding of the Lisbon Treaty was that it gave EU powers to write in alot of ‘blanks’ so to speak: could this be the EU’s ace in the whole if we say we’re going to default? (i.e. they write in a rule that you can’t)

brian greene >> (All): if the banks go bust do we need a natioanlised back. like an ACC the farmers bank.

Hopper >> (All): If a private economist gave the advice that wreaked the country (blanket bank guarantee) would they be liable for criminal professional neglect. As an engineer would be if they designed a bridge that collapsed and cost millions. (ignore loss of life)

karlypants >> (All): Which of the potential finance ministers do you think can get the best deal for us? (if any)

eggfuel >> (All): is there any credence to FG getting billions off the US and would this be an issue for the EU from a US geeting its hands on EU control

Declan Weri >> (All): Ignorant question but can we refuse the ECB bailout and agree a better deal with the IMF exclusively? ECB seem to want to penalise us rather than get us back on our feet. IMF’s terms seem more in our interest.

Bri >> (All): Michael Noonan will be advised by DoF; that’s my concern!

DM >> (All): Is all of our €17.5bn “contribution” to the IMF/EU package coming from the NPRF? If it is only €12.5bn, where is the other €5bn coming from ????

Colin >> (All): If the incoming govt don’t go far enough to separate bank debt and sovereign debt, would you support a campaign for an Icelandic-style referendum on the topic?

Andy >> (All): How does the fact that there is only 4.9 billion left in the NPRF affect Sinn Fein’s idea of burning the bondholders?

Kevin >> (All): A little known revelation was uttered by Micheal Martin in the debate. He stated that there was only 4.9 billion left in the NPRF. Do you think that the monies have been taken exclusively from this to fund the banks rather than draw down the EU/IMF loan? Does this drastically reduce our hand in dealing with Europe?

eggfuel >> (All): Has David mc williams shown a list of INDependants that support his ideas?

Colin >> (All): Would burning the German and French banks trigger an EU-wide deeper recession?

kate >> (All): what about relclaiming the national gas and oil? could we borrow off the potential 500billion euro? what about making multinational corporations actually pay the 12.5% tax rather then 2% like google?

victoria kenny >> (All): Why are prices not coming down?  Only thing seem to be a bit cheaper is grocery shopping everything else has gone up – wages are down – price are up – would not mind being paid less if things cost less

john doyle >> (All): john doyle dublin south
eggfuel >> (All): We need to rebuild our country from within ourselves before we can vote correctly
Kevin >> (All): Why are our government still listening to Patrick Honohan? Wasn’t the bailout exclusively his idea yet they still laud him as being the voice of reason? Does this not make him out to have been incompetent?

monag >> (All): can the EU really cope in a deeper recession or is breakup a possible outcome

Evan >> (All): Are figures available for what the cost would have been of guaranteeing domestic depositors either in full or up to the €100k threshold at the time of the blanket guarantee versus the cost of covering the bank losses apparent so far?

eggfuel >> (All): do you do private talks for groups in north kildare

Colin >> (All): What specifically can we not do due to the inability to devalue? (like Iceland)

Daithi O Gradaidh >> (All): What are your predictions for the next 2 years?  What gov says and what they do are 2 different things…   How do you see banking policy and debt management actually working out?

Andy >> (All): So just to be clear could you summarise exactly what you think we should do in 4 or 5 points?

monag >> (All): an the EU really cope in a deeper recession or is breakup a possible outcome with a slow and a fast group?

Hopper >> (All): What would be the outlook if Sinn Fein had exclusive control of the country. How long would it take to go bust or would it. They are doing a great job of convincing people that they are playing a gamble  as opposed to a one way path to distaster

Colin >> (All): If elected, could you realistically see Paul Somerville ending up in a cabinet/negotiation position?

Nollaig >> (All): I think we should be having an efficentcy drive not an austerity drive and price are not coming down in the protected sectors of Building Rentals Legal Medical and education and oddly thats the professions in the dail are made up of…

jo >> (All): Whats your view on setting up a national bank

jo >> (All): national bank as proposed by ellen brown

eggfuel >> (All): What are thestrongest private interest groups in your opinion steering irelands finances

conor sweeney >> (All): do you think there are many hidden economic skeletons still in the cupboard?

paul ryan >> (All): Who are the Irish senior bondholders in anglo irish bank?
Rob Cleary >> (All): What do we do if EU still say no even after we threaten default (as Vincent Browne keeps asking)?

eggfuel >> (All): your answers are very honest and from the hip. like that for once in this country

Peter >> (All): Can we borrow from China? They are the richest nation on earth with trillions of dollars to offload. USA borrows from them. We can offer a partnership for renewable energy to supply Europe. Eddie O’Connor needs 30 Bill and 10 years with no political obstacles…..give him this

Nollaig >> (All): Should we be consentrating on getting the finances in order to go back to the market instead waffling on about ECB/EU interest ratejohn doyle >> (All): So how do we stimulate the domestic economy. Stimulus package?john doyle >> (All): well said

Daithi O Gradaidh >> (All): It seems that all but the EU seem to be prepared to burn bondholders.  Even bondholders seem to expect a burning (wasn’t P. Sommerville interviewed for BBC Panorama about it?)  So, how does a country with the population of a city effectively stand up for itself more? It’s clear as day Irish politicans are being told what to do….

monag >> (All): Can the EU really cope in a deeper recession or is breakup a possible outcome

monag >> (All): slow and fast groups

DM >> (All): Given that (as you said) depositors are paid interest because there is a risk of losses, should the state be bailing out domestic deposits any more than they should be bailing out bondholders? Don’t we need to clearly distinguish between deposit (warehouse) banking, and loan (risk) banking in any future banking system reconstruction?

Tony >> (All): FF policy was to reinflate the housing market?  Will FG give up on that?

eggfuel >> (All): when are you speaking next

monag >> (All): is neg equity forgiveness for young mortgage holders possible?

DM >> (All): Is all of our €17.5bn “contribution” to the IMF/EU package coming from the NPRF? If it is only €12.5bn, where is the other €5bn coming from ????

paul ryan >> (All): Do the irish people deserve what they are getting.They will now vote in FG

DM >> (All): Brian, thanks for taking the time to chat.Daithi O Gradaidh >> (All): could change come from peoplevictoria kenny >> (All): thanks great chat – Economics the new reality TV!

eggfuel >> (All): are we the hole in the balloon for EU.!!! i think yes and thats our power

john doyle >> (All): were used to the abuse

Daithi O Gradaidh >> (All): pensioners had the idea… if ppl did it and were seen to do it in europe…  but how bad does it have to get b4 we do it is question…

Kevin >> (All): thanks for your time Brian, very informative!

paul ryan >> (All): Brian,in any other country there would be people in jail

paul ryan >> (All): not uNollaig >> (All): thx brian

Teresa OMahony >> (All): Thanks Brian, very informative

eggfuel >> (All): Brian thank you for this talk. Would love to hear you on here again

monag >> (All): Good webinar, Brian 🙂

3 thoughts on “Peoples Economy Brian M Lucey Day 3. What happens if the banks go bust?

    1. Thanks for comment Trich.. really depends on the pace of the questions sometimes… most speakers do read out the questions. Also if you try the 720p option on the youtube movies you can go full screen and read the questions as they are typed into the chat function. Also we record the text file of the questions that are asked. Speakers don’t know what questions are going to be asked prior to the live show.

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