Trends in the Irish property market with Ronan Lyons

Trends in the Irish property market with Ronan Lyons.

David Hartery >> (All): hey 🙂
David Hartery >> (All): much better when these are on outside of work hours.. missed the last few when they were live
Ronan >> (All): Trying to do an online #vinb!
David Hartery >> (All): read the report when it came out the other day, interesting stuff Ronan. Didnt give it the time i would have liked, but hopefuly you’re explanation this evening will mean i wont need to 😛
Ronan >> (All): exactly!
David Hartery >> (All): yeah no prob
David Hartery >> (All): was in oxford last year for a debating competition. unbelievable history around the place, bit intimidating 😛
Lorcanrk >> (All): Evening all
Lorcanrk >> (All): Kinsella is coming too? Feck, I’m outta here 🙂
Ronan >> (All): Hi Lorcan
Ronan >> (All): 🙂
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Hello
David Hartery >> (All): “@dhartery economics at one level is just crap physics with the labels changed,” Stephen sent this a minute ago..
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Yes, first time on here
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Jag
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Hi Joe, Hi Ronan
David Hartery >> (All): never going to live that one down am i?
David Hartery >> (All): glad i changed the power rangers one off
Ronan >> (All): ha
Cillian Lyons >> (All): Hi guys! Thanks for the welcome. No webcam as yet
>> (All): This meeting is now being recorded.
Lorcanrk >> (All): That is just second derivatibe bs
Lorcanrk >> (All): not from you, from the estate agents 🙂
David Hartery >> (All): tihs is actually pretty cool
David Hartery >> (All): hit fit to screen if you cant see the graph properly 🙂
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Rents supported by rent assistance
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Sorry should have a question mark?
Lorcanrk >> (All): Where should rental yields be to be sustainable? 7%?
Lorcanrk >> (All): Or a clear signal from their bank manager..
David Hartery >> (All): in the UK they made the bailouts conditional on the banks starting lending again. do you think that’s why there was an increase in property prices in the UK during the recession but they’ve continued to fall here?
Lorcanrk >> (All): Today’s Consume sentiment numbers were a disappointment. Do you think that the slow down in price falls are subject to high, medium or low ‘downside’ risk?
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Improving = more transactions or improving = higher prices?
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Understood
kencurtin >> (All): due to the over supply for a few hours does that not mean we will never really return to a natural/normal supply level
kencurtin >> (All): that should have read few years not few hours
David Hartery >> (All): haha
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Population in Dublin fell 0.3% last year, overall State was up just 11,000
kencurtin >> (All): im a cork native and in parts of rural cork its obvious we have way over supplied ala connaght ulster
NAMAwinelake >> (All): 0.3% = 5,000 souls
online >> (All): that would be #Ivor Ken 😉
David Hartery >> (All): yeah, cork should have no problems selling those houses, all the politicians who live down there
Lorcanrk >> (All): Ennis had outline planning for 100k houses..
kencurtin >> (All): ha ha #ivor is distorting stats in multiple regions 🙂
kencurtin >> (All): am attending a conference over next two days and will make sure i work intergenerational outsourcing into conversation regularly to see if anyone knows what im talking about 🙂
kencurtin >> (All): #corkmeet
David Hartery >> (All): disclaimer voice: prices may fall as well as rise…
karldeeter >> (All): I have used the highest deposit rate as the risk free rate (residential property investors don’t use govt bond as a benchmark), and property should yield twice that – imo
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Ronan, is that your forecast? Prices to drop 25% and bottom in 2-3 years?
Lorcanrk >> (All): @NAMA, you trying to pin an economist down there?
NAMAwinelake >> (All): positives – EU say we’re undervalued, public sector employment and wages are protected by Croke Park Agt
karldeeter >> (All): best 1yr is 3.5% (anglo!) so c. 7%ish
online >> (All): last questions..
kencurtin >> (All): will the biggest shift of all be when the irish mindset moves from buying to renting ?
NAMAwinelake >> (All): when tenant tenure is so unprotected ie owner can sell any time, then ownership will always command premium
karldeeter >> (All): @NamaWinelake if there was scarcity the premium may be sizeable but would you maintain that case in Irl?
Lorcanrk >> (All): Is NAMA good for the property market?
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Not in Ronan’s defn = stops transactions until it clarifies intentions
Lorcanrk >> (All): (Joe Stiglitz’s affadavid is out, btw, he’s not a fan)
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Yep there’s a copy of the statement on NAMAwinelake
kencurtin >> (All): state always were in that position nobody really used the state as a benchmark for prices
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Ronan, absolutely excellent, that was terrific
Ronan >> (All): thanks
Cillian Lyons >> (All): Thanks for a great talk! Well done
karldeeter >> (All): apprentice? glee is on! lol
karldeeter >> (All): great talk ronan
saulius >> (All): Thanks
David Hartery >> (All): Thanks for the talk 🙂 Yay, Glee
saulius >> (All): 🙂
NAMAwinelake >> (All): Joe thanks very much, as Arnie would say I’ll be back
kencurtin >> (All): thanks Ronan that was excellent
Cillian Lyons >> (All): See you next time 🙂
Lorcanrk >> (All): Thanks Ronan
Lorcanrk >> (All): see you in two weeks
Cillian Lyons >> (All): Hsaha
>> (All): This meeting is no longer being recorded.

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